Jan 28 2008
obama’s campaign over?
I saw this well-written email from S.B. Woo at the 80-20, which is a Asian American PAC and thought I would share excerpts. I am not a registered Democrat (and am not particularly bound to either party), but found this analysis worth quoting:
As the mainstream media stressed: Obama’s courting of the black vote in SC may cost him the white vote. Exits poll showed that his white support went down by 50%. Since the white vote is still about 75% of the nation’s total, the repercussion dooms Obama on Super Tuesday and later primaries. See NY Times Results
Obama got only ¼ of the white votes, while Clinton and Edwards split the rest. In the 22 state primaries on Super Tuesday, Clinton will get a lion’s share of the white votes, with Edwards getting much less because Edwards is out of time and money to campaign.
High electoral politics is mathematical. The 55% Obama got in SC were almost all from blacks and white Republicans who strongly dislike Clinton, according to a CNN reporter (John King, I believe). Note that in SC, voters may cross party to vote. In contrast, 2/3 of the 22 states allow only Democrats or (Democrats plus Independents) to vote in a Democratic primary. Polls after polls show that Democrats strongly prefer Clinton. In addition, Clinton has very strong infrastructure in all big states, planted since Bill Clinton’s time in the White House.
S.B. Woo concludes:
There are only 9 days left for Obama to play catch up. His strength is rhetorical skills. He can’t use those skills effectively when there are 22 states, some huge, and he has only 9 days left.
Obama has raised $81Million, while Clinton has raised $91 million. My impression is that Obama has been spending much faster than Clinton, because he must do very well in early primaries in order to shock and crumble the Clinton foundation. However, he didn’t achieve his objectives. They each took 2 states (NH and Nevada for Clinton).
Believe it or not, there is an 85% chance that the election is over for Obama!
While I don’t know whether this is reality because elections are hard to call, I found this intriguing given the constant media coverage of the primaries. From what I’ve seen, I have liked Obama, but it will be interesting to see how he actually does. (though I have no plan to vote for the man, I do like him)
