Jun 04 2008
barack obama v. john mccain on foreign trade
You can hardly click on a U.S. news website or a newspaper talking about Barack Obama’s historical milestone of being the first African-American Democratic Party nominee for President… at least, if you are living in America, this is all you will hear about. This is how CNN put it:
Barack Obama made history Tuesday night when he became the first African-American in U.S. history to clinch a major party’s presidential nomination. But the Illinois senator faces several challenges as the campaign now turns to the general election — notwithstanding a first order of business of helping to heal the wounds of a deeply divided Democratic Party.
So now that we have 2 clear candidates to consider for president, I wanted to go to Going Global, where Craig posted some good information about each candidate, in his post entitled, “Presidential Primary Edition — The Candidates, the Parties and Their Positions on Global Trade”. He posted, however, back when there were still multiple candidates left in the primaries. Now is probably a good time to review what he said about the 2 major candidates. First, America’s new rock star politician (who has nothing about China policy on his website):
Of the 3 U.S. Senators in the race, Barack Obama has the shortest tenure and therefore a somewhat truncated voting record. He was firmly against CAFTA. Although he wasn’t around to vote on it, he has made it repeatedly clear that he thinks NAFTA should be reopened and amended to provide more protectionist labor provisions. In his one departure from a fairly consistent anti-free trade record, he voted in favor of a free trade agreement with Oman. I’m not sufficiently familiar with the provisions of that agreement to understand what it was that distinguished that agreement from other FTA’s in the Senator’s mind, but at least it does indicate that he’s not anti free trade all the time under all circumstances.
And here is Craig’s take on John McCain, who has been on the campaign trail for some time:
Senator McCain . . . has the longest national public record of any of the candidates and therefore has established perhaps the most definitive positions on trade. If one is pro international trade, McCain has a record to be admired. Mccain According to OnTheIssues.org, the Senator has a near perfect voting record in supporting free trade agreements including NAFTA and even the recently defeated CAFTA. Last October he gave a speech making the point that “every time the U.S. went protectionist, we paid a heavy price.” Just this month he gave a speech calling for a continued reduction in barriers to free trade, recognizing that “globalization is an opportunity.”
McCain’s website seems to promise “John McCain Will Lower Barriers To Trade“. This should prove to be very interesting because ironically,
it used to be that the Republican Party was pro-trade and the Democratic Party tended to be more protectionist given its traditional base of support among labor unions
Being a Chinese-American who enjoys politics, that was how I used to view the parties and their stances as well. I have a feeling those who in favor of free trade, which does bring a heavy benefit to China and has helped sustain its burgeoning economy, will be supporting John McCain this November. If Obama does end up being protectionist, it won’t help China. Even in spite of growing nationalism, you’d really have to be blind to think that China doesn’t need America either.
But then again, with the popular coverage on Obama, it’s pretty easy to lose sight of the issues that matter to Chinese businesses…
It’s a common theme among candidates running for the Presidency in the US to rant about China and be anti-free trade (eg: Bill Clinton when he ran for office), followed by a huge turn-around once in office (eg: Bill Clinton pushing for China into the WTO). Therefore, the concept of those who support free trade (like myself) find it largely irrelevant on how they have voted when every single President since Herbert Hoover has supported the concept of free trade once in office.
Tom:
Thanks for picking up on my earlier post. While the other comment to the effect that every president since Herbert Hoover has been pro free trade once in office is historically accurate, I do sense that there has been a sea change in sentiment on this issue and that a Democrat controlled Congress might be able to hold Mr. Obama’s feet to the fire on this issue — or at least it may be an issue on which he would be less likely to use up valuable political capital fighting members of his own party on international trade while working on what he thinks are more important parts of his agenda.
Having said that, I also want to stress the point in my post to the effect that it was not a political endorsement of any candidate. There are many critical issues facing this country and many valid reasons on which to base one’s choice for president. International economic policy and relations, including free trade and immigration policy, is certainly among them, but not the only one.
Craig
While I do not quite know the area you are referring to in the concept of a sea change in the sentiment of pro-free trade to anti-free trade, my view is that whenever a recession comes along within the US, free trade policies have become unpopular, regardless of who’s in office (eg: 1980s with Japan). A Democratic-controlled Congress with a Democratic President has happened previously as well with no major change in pro-free trade policies. This is not to say that free trade policies become lower priorities, but they re-bounce quickly.
Demerzel:
I agree with you that most presidents switch positions once in office, and I have no doubt that some of that will come into play with Obama should he win. How much this will happen, however, is open to debate. I actually think that Obama is willing to go against free trade to some degree, so it will prove interesting. I also agree that a recession tends to change things, so we will see. If the economy does improve within this year, we could see a different landscape next year.
Craig:
Thanks for clarifying. While I think Congress might hold Obama’s feet to the fire, I also don’t expect it to do so too much. I just can’t imagine a president going against free trade, even if it would be wildly popular. Obama has consulted economists about the gas-tax holiday, so he must have (hopefully) done so with this issue as well.