Dan Harris at
CLB recently posted John McCain and Barack Obama’s
statements about China from the American Chamber of Commerce. Since I’ve been following this election more closely than the last, I don’t think it’s quite the yawn that Dan characterizes it as. But that being said, it is ultimately nothing surprising. I just wanted to highlight some because I just enjoy it too much. (And ironically, while I have a pile of China business/law articles sitting in my mailbox, it’s hard to get motivated to write about them when there’s American politics brewing…)
First, some
excerpts from John McCain:
Seizing these opportunities, however, will require strong American leadership and an unequivocal American commitment to Asia, whose fate is increasingly inseparable from our own. It requires internationalism rather than isolationism, and global trade rather than national protectionism. When our friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific region think of the future, they should expect more—not less—attention, investment and cooperation from the highest levels of the US government.
Okay, nothing new. But at least McCain is willing to admit that America must commit to Asia, as opposed to go isolationist. (a la Obama) Of course, that does have some consequences.
It must be a priority of the next American president to expand America’s economic relationships in Asia. Unfortunately, in what has become an all-too-predictable pattern, some American politicians—including the Democratic candidate for president—are preying on the fears stoked by Asia’s dynamism; rather than encouraging American innovation and entrepreneurship, they instead propose throwing up protectionist walls that will leave us all worse off. The United States has never won respect or created jobs by retreating from free trade, and we cannot start doing so now.
We also must recognize, however, that while open trade with Asia is in America’s interest, globalization will not automatically benefit every American. That’s why we must remain committed to education, retraining and help for displaced workers, regardless of whether their job went away because of trade, technological innovation, or shifts in consumer spending patterns. For Americans who have lost a job, we need to expand opportunities for further education and training that can open new doors. We need to modernize our unemployment insurance system to reflect the reality of the 21st century economy: jobs that go away no longer come back when business rebounds. We need to help displaced workers make ends meet between jobs and move people quickly on to the next opportunity.
Definitely straight talk, which may end up angering some Americans. But it is well appreciated. Why? Because those jobs ain’t coming back. At least, its pretty darn unlikely that those jobs are coming back. Yes, Americans have lost jobs. We know that. We see it in CNN Money every day that the economy is reeling. But McCain has it right: the jobs aren’t coming back even if we become protectionist. They just aren’t. Maybe they’ll move to Vietnam or India. But if you play tough on China in this regard, it won’t make a difference.
China has obligations as well. Its commitment to open markets must include enforcement of international trade rules, protecting intellectual property, lowering manufacturing tariffs and fulfillment of its commitment to move to a market-determined currency. The next administration should be clear about where China needs to make progress, hold it to its commitments through enforcement at the World Trade Organization and enforce US trade and product safety laws.
China’s growing power and influence endow it with the obligation to behave as a responsible stakeholder in global politics. China could bolster its claim that it is “peacefully rising” by being more transparent about its significant military buildup and by working with the world to isolate pariah states. In addition, how a nation treats its citizens is a legitimate subject of international concern in today’s world. China has signed numerous international agreements that make its domestic behavior more than just a matter of national sovereignty. To be a responsible stakeholder in the modern international system, a government must also be responsible at home, in protecting the rights of its people.
And here, McCain does the normal “let’s be a tough presidential candidate” talk. But I don’t see it as being outrageous… and it’s the same rhetoric as usual: IP, human rights, etc. Nothing new. And McCain’s conclusion is nothing new either:
China and the United States are not destined to be adversaries. We have numerous overlapping interests and I hope to see our relationship evolve in a manner that benefits both countries and, in turn, the Asia-Pacific region and the world.
Of course, you’d think they are if you read all of the media around the U.S. nowadays. They are not, and should not be adversaries. For better or worse, we need them and they need us. And if you can’t accept that fact, then you really shouldn’t be voting. (or you can go to fantasy land and vote for another candidate)
So overall, I find McCain’s rhetoric to be relatively straight-forward and on point. He isn’t making too many overbloated promises, and I think he understands the reality of a global economy.
Now its Barack Obama’s
turn to speak:
In the coming years, the United States and China face challenges that require fresh thinking and a change from the US policy approach of the past eight years. How the US and China meet these challenges, and the extent to which we can find common ground, will be important both for our own countries and for others in Asia and beyond.
Well, I’m curious as to what U.S. policies Obama refers to. Because it occurs to me that (1) revoking China’s most-favored nation status would seriously anger those in China, and lead to some tension that could cause a greater hiccup in sourcing and America’s heavy reliance on China. (2) Or perhaps Obama thinks free trade is a bad idea. But I still don’t see how much of this has anything to do with U.S. governmental policy as much as it is a corporate decision to source in China or elsewhere by the MNCs, not by politicians. Just because Obama is about change doesn’t mean that everything should change.
But as China’s leaders acknowledge, China must make some basic adjustments if it is to continue sustained, shared economic growth. China must develop practices that are more environmentally sustainable and less energy intensive, that boost domestic consumption as an engine of growth, that enhance the social safety net, and that encourage indigenous technology innovation. Otherwise, the country’s future performance may fall well short of its potential.
Funny, but most people in China would pin this blame on America. (I think erroneously though… I think both countries have a share of the blame here) I have to just point out that it’s America that is in the best position to actually help China become more green because America has the technology. China doesn’t. If anyone wants to see green tech take off in China, then someone here will have to be willing to help out. I don’t see all that many takers yet.
More broadly, the United States supports and benefits from security and stability in Asia. We need to address the principal causes of regional tension. As I made clear in my congratulatory letter to Ma Ying-jeou on his inauguration, we support steps to build trust across the Taiwan Strait and improvements in relations between Beijing and Taipei, now more possible with good will by both sides than at any time since the mid-1990s.
This is more standard Republican fare, which makes things very interesting. Maybe Obama is reaching out to the Taiwanese?
I know that America and the world can benefit from trade with China, but only if China agrees to play by the rules and act as a positive force for balanced world growth. I want China’s economy to continue to grow, its domestic demand to expand and its vitality to contribute to regional and global prosperity. But China’s current growth is unbalanced, and in recent years domestic consumption has actually gone down as a percentage of GDP. To increase internal demand Beijing will have to improve substantially its social safety net and upgrade its financial services sector to bring its consumption in line with international norms.
Central to any rebalancing of our economic relationship with China must be change in its currency practices. Because it pegs its currency at an artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses. This is not good for American firms and workers, not good for the world, and ultimately likely to produce inflation problems in China itself.
As President, I will use all the diplomatic avenues available to seek a change in China’s currency practices. I will also undertake more sustained and serious efforts to combat intellectual property piracy in China, and to address regulations that discriminate against foreign investments in major sectors and other unfair trading practices. And I will work with the Chinese government to establish a better system for both countries to monitor products produced for export and act when dangerous products are identified.
As President, I will take a vigorous, pragmatic approach to addressing these issues, utilizing our domestic trade remedy laws as well as the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism wherever appropriate. High-level dialogue among economic leaders in both countries is also important to achieving real progress. My approach to our economic relationship is positive and forward-looking: to remove obstructions to gaining the benefits of trade and thus to enable faster, and healthier, growth in both economies.
Okay, the WTO I can understand. And the IP thing is standard rhetoric that McCain also included. Getting into the whole currency deflation thing is a can of worms. (one that I don’t want to even open because I’ve seen arguments on both sides, and since I’m not an economist, am not really sure which perspective is more correct) In my view, probably not the wisest thing to mention in such an article.
I also don’t believe the last statement that Obama wants to grow the health of both economies. All of his rhetoric so far (and you can tell, I hate political rhetoric that is only meant to convey false promises) has been to paint the U.S. v. China in a zero sum game. And now he says that he wants a win-win situation. Here’s some news: we are already in a pretty decent win-win situation. It’s not great for the U.S., but do you expect from the process of outsourcing? If you don’t expect that China will have a trade surplus, then you are dreaming.
In particular, I look to China to work with us to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, to halt the genocide in Darfur and to help reverse the slide into anarchy in Zimbabwe.
Obama really likes to mention things that anger China. Perhaps that’s his goal. The Darfur thing is a tough card to play. Remember that China wouldn’t even bow to the pressure of the Genocide Olympics tag. I think this will just make China more adamant personally.
I like Obama because he’s obviously intelligent, charismatic, and an attorney. I just can’t stand his rhetoric. If he doesn’t tone it down if he gets into the White House, I predict some really rocky times for U.S.-China relations. So for the sake of those relations, I can’t stop but think that McCain is a better candidate. We’ll see come November.